The Future of the Tablet

The tablet computer form factor is finally emerging after years of effort and many failed attempts. This is singularly the result of Apple’s iPad. With the excitement of 40m iPad units sold up to October 2011 there is a gold rush mentality in tablet activity. Yet, emulating Apple’s success has been elusive. Consider:

Given the success of Apple why has competition been so elusive? We offer the following:

Our initial impression was that competition for the iPad would emerge at CES 2011. At this show the market was flooded with Android based tablets or soon-to-be tablets. This market has not materialized for many of the reasons cited above. At the center of Apple’s success is the following:

For non-iPad tablets to gain market traction they must be more that a “me too” product. Prospective buyers must want a non-Apple tablet and given the bar that Apple has set with the iPad that is one difficult hurdle to cross. The bottom line is that Apple has been successful where all the products before it failed. Its unique strengths and execution are responsible for that success. Just knowing what is successful does not imply that another company will have competitive products which seek to emulate that success. In 2011 the marketplace has learned that difficult and expensive lesson.

What does this mean for the future of tablets? We offer the following:

Competitors should seek niche markets which allow them to compete in ways which Apple is not strong. The first serious attempt to do this is with the Amazon Fire.

Any direct competitor to the iPad must be at least at parity in user utility, interface and pricing which must be less than the iPad. Pricing is an entry position in consumer markets.

Another niche is to have a unique and compelling feature which drives buyers. One may be NFC, for example, but it requires an ecosystem behind it. There are others but these have not been developed in the market.

We seriously doubt that 2012 will be the year of the non-Apple tablet. Effective competition is both a corporate culture issue and about driving in ways which demand consumer attention and money to be spent.

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